In ZDNet they are writing about the data networking technology trends in 2008. Of course, such lists are highly subjective, but still it is interesting to look at them, I think. For example, I was able to find some of the technologies that have been talked about for quite some time but only now seem to be making it into the mainstream markets (if this is indeed true).

One of them is IPv6. I remember quite well that I was tasked about 8-9 years ago while working for a datacom startup in Cupertino, California, to call for an internal strategy discussion where all architects, R&D managers, management, marcom and product management were invited. I had to present the status of IPv6 from a business evolution point of view while one SW architect looked at all the technology bits. Then we wanted to discuss and if possible make a decision if we should put IPv6 on the roadmap for the next 2-5 years or leave it off. I recommended leaving it off and that was the right decision. Now as the analyst writing for ZDNet says, 2008 will bring it into the US government and from there the vendors will push it to the enterprises which will ultimately lead to its mainstream introduction, also because the need from the mobile world will increase. This will then be ten years after my investigation back in the US. I think while IPv6 is a special case, it still is a good example of how long it can take for technology to be adopted. The only certain rule is that the time needed is practically always underestimated. This is of course mainly for economic reasons, but also is due to the many non-technology savvy marcom folks out there who push and hype up things while actually having no real clue what they are talking about. OK, they are paid to create the buzz and not to explain how the stuff works, but I think that success and failure largely also depend on how well and accurately things are communicated. If you don't understand those details you cannot market them properly. Something we see daily in our ICT-focused product marketing work.

There are a few other candidates in this list from ZDNet. Fixed Wireless Convergence and Open Wireless Networks. The author is a bit more cautious here and says that the process will start. Maybe he is right, although I am not so sure. Both I see as candidates taking a decade or more to get to the status where IPv6 is now.

Much easier to predict was the evolution of Ethernet and its speed. While at the beginning Ethernet had its competitors still with ATM and Token Ring and some others, it has become the clear number one choice for datacom connectivity ever since (I am not saying this is due to being the best technology, though). Its exponential growth was easy to forecast: 10Mbps, 100Mbs, 1Gbps and now 10Gbps. It is also easy to predict that we will see Ethernet give SONET/SDH a hard time too. Now comes the ultimate question, though: Where are we going from 10G? This is not that straightforward anymore due to technology limitations that we encounter towards even higher speeds. A question for the year 2008 to think about. Happy New Year!