BusinessWeek Online is raising this question, based on some interviews with market experts from Europe. Ovum's John Delaney believes, e.g.: "IM will gradually take over from SMS in the next five years in Europe."
Of course operators have their own ideas and face a delicate decision since "SMS is the most profitable product in history of telecoms" as one other person pointed out. So once more they are sitting in front of a holy cow and don't know what to do next. Initiative has therefore once again to come from others, in this case the phone suppliers (e.g. the Nokia 770 with GoogleTalk) and the big IM service providers such as MSN, Yahoo, AOL or Google. Community networks, such as MySpace, could be yet another driver.