One week on, and another ad from Microsoft, courtesy again of Bill and Jerry, and the long version weighs in at a whopping 4 minutes. I really wanted to see how I'd done with my predictions, and essentially, I think I wasn't too far off. Except that Microsoft was way ahead of me. I thought the odd couple would end up in a diner talking about the common man. In fact they ended up having dinner with the common family.

I think the new ad is both subtle and funny. They've come to stay with a "typical" family to get back in touch with what life is really like for average folks, with all its little moments of awkwardness and embarrassment, of which there are plenty. This episode wrong-footed all the pundits: Jerry, rather than being yesterday's comedian trying to be today's, something for which Microsoft was widely ridiculed, actually says, (more or less), "look at us Bill, you in your Moon House and me with so many cars I'm driving in my own traffic jam - we both need to get back in touch with everyday folks". Clever concept, clever casting.

From the comments I saw, the ad people got it, no problem, and commentators from the ITU world, such as Michael Arrington ("I remain confused"), just scratched their heads and wondered what Microsoft was thinking of. They're doing something funny, and bits of this one wouldn't be out of place (IMHO) in the Seinfeld creator Larry David's own cult series, Curb Your Enthusiasm - of which I am a big fan. In this one, Bill actually takes a real part in the comedy duo. First one, I thought he just got away with being geeky and saying almost nothing; this one I think you fall for his understated wry style.

I think a lot of IT people still hold the opinion that Microsoft is simply trying to rehabilitate Vista. As I said last week, it's a much bigger exercise than that, it's about the company. Getting more acceptance of Vista is more than a side-effect, but still essentially a bonus. The ads are making the admission that Microsoft is out of touch, but in a way that actually shows the opposite - i.e. "we have been out of touch, but we're not any more". Putting the founder in very humbling circumstances really takes the wind out of Apple's sails, too, because the success of those ads depends on Microsoft's perceived arrogance. This series - which will have a massive audience - may well succeed in creating sympathy for the Microsoft geek in the Apple adverts and making the cool apple guy look that little bit snobbish. In a way, the ad out-cools Apple in its post-modern sensibility, something few brands manage, including Apple and Steve Jobs (not that this seems to have hurt them so far). All in all, well done Microsoft.